Large carnivore expansion in Europe is associated with human population density and land cover changes

Aim The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled forest cover increase and the consequent availability shelter prey. We investigated whether population density changes are related to relative probability occurrence three European carnivores: grey wolf (Canis lupus), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) brown bear (Ursus arctos). Location Europe, west 64° longitude. Methods fitted multi-temporal species distribution models using >50,000 points with time series cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations covering 24-year period (1992–2015). Within temporal window considered, we then predicted habitat suitability for throughout Europe. Results Between 1992 2015, increased Eastern Balkans, North-West Iberian Peninsula Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends Western Southern These were primarily associated increases decreases density, and, additionally, mosaics cropland natural vegetation. Main conclusions Recent appear have altered pattern whereas protection level did not play role. While projected largely match observed carnivore populations, found mismatches expansion wolves Central where factors included our may played dominant This suggests that carnivores’ co-existence humans landscapes is limited availability, other such favourable tolerance policy.